The Soapbox

81_Hokie

Joined: 03/16/2005 Posts: 16386
Likes: 28606


7 day moving average is presently 1,062 deaths per day. That's more than


over the summer but 1/2 of September and not too far from an average for the year. That extrapolates to nearly 400,000 deaths per year given current behaviors and restrictions. That's nothing like normal.

Boca suggested above that we're normal when this starts to look like the flu, which would be 1/10 of the deaths, not cases, of where we are now. I think that's a little conservative but we are nowhere near normal. I would be perfectly fine setting restrictions on places like concerts, theaters, barrooms, etc. Anyplace where people are densely packed for long periods of time. I'm not epidemiologist, but look at a Pareto chart of where people become infected and do something to mitigate the top few contributors. I'm not worried about catching covid in the grocery store but I wouldn't go see a Broadway play now. If you suggest people should be free to make that choice I counter with the idea that people shouldn't be free to take covid from Broadway to a restaurant or wherever. I think knocking down the big contributors would go a long way toward reducing deaths and making things more normal.

(In response to this post by CAVern)

Posted: 12/06/2021 at 09:24AM



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Current Thread:
 
  
What metrics would you use to indicate we are post-pandemic? -- FrankGallagher 12/06/2021 07:47AM
  757 gave the correct answer below -- NJHoo 12/06/2021 2:15PM
  If not required I usually go by the employees -- WahooMatt05 12/06/2021 10:04AM
  It is far from 100% in NY, certainly in grocery stores. -- hoolstoptheheels 12/06/2021 10:04AM
  Yeah, I’m in NYC right now. Definitely -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2021 10:16AM
  It’s the new normal, IMO, although it will vary by… -- Los Angeles Hoo 12/06/2021 09:32AM
  More dangerous than usual for the elderly, sick, -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2021 09:59AM
  The people who try to claim that covid is -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2021 10:35AM
  My understanding is there -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2021 11:30AM
  Not even close. ** -- Los Angeles Hoo 12/06/2021 10:06AM
  40% of the country is obese, 17% is over -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2021 10:12AM
  It's not close. Your 17% figure is accurate, but... -- Los Angeles Hoo 12/06/2021 10:34AM
  Ok, but the more you narrow down the -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2021 10:52AM
  It’s not hard. “COVID deaths” are inflated… -- Los Angeles Hoo 12/06/2021 11:13AM
  Except for the fact that -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2021 11:40AM
  I can and have explained it to you on this very board… -- Los Angeles Hoo 12/06/2021 12:32PM
  The “so what?” question is very -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2021 1:07PM
  I don’t think we have enough meaningful data to say… -- Los Angeles Hoo 12/06/2021 2:20PM
  I think your Venn diagram is a bit off... -- Folly Beach Hokie 12/06/2021 10:20AM
  The worst is when the precautionary principle -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2021 09:29AM
  Must be the pink air. ** -- SixerHoo 12/06/2021 09:46AM
  Pssst, we’ve already had that for decades -- WahooMatt05 12/06/2021 09:47AM
  We wish … ** -- WaxHoo 12/06/2021 08:28AM

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